SUBMISSION OF PARTY MEMBERSHIP REGISTER :THE UNFAIR CONTEST BOOBY TRAP;OPPOSITIONS, BEWARE

1.According to Marcus Aurelius”The impediments to action advances action. What stands in the way becomes the way”. This philosophical thought by the Roman Emperor derived from the thought of a man who literally carries the weight or burden of an empire is the motivation for this piece.

2. Every election year creates a new euphoria, expectations, matrix, supposition, intrigues, calculation, “Abracadabra” in Nigeria, largely due to leadership failure.

3.A cursory look paints a picture of an endemic failed political leadership that tends to worsen the social- economic expectations of the people. The worst of Governments, becomes the best in each preceding leadership selection circle. This trend has cemented the wide held belief that Nigeria with it’s abundant natural and human resources ( largely untapped) is encumbered by political Leadership challenges at all tiers of Government.

4.The question that begs for an answer is, why would a country so blessed with Internationally reputable human resources in terms of intelligence, brilliance , smartness, resilience , hardwork, industry, courage, ingenuity , dedication etc find it difficult to locate sets of few individuals to govern it to Nigeria’s prosperity?
Probably, in exploring this topic, we may find the missing jigsaw!

5. One of the fundamentals of enthroning or employing quality political leadership or employee is the selection process. However, this selection process should be guided by some clear, concise and unambiguous criteria that are tailored towards the optimisation of human resource skills. This usually is done in the other sectors of human endeavours, where we set a very long, ambitious, excellent, researched, tailored, CV inspired job requirements. Whereas, when it comes to the criteria to get those who sits atop the seven pillars of the society (Governance), that directs the wheels of the socio-economic and political prosperity of the system or state, the standards drops so low.
The entry level requirements for a grade level 9 officer in the Federal Civil Service is higher than the requirements to vie for the position of the President Federal Republic of Nigeria. Furthermore, the fundamental requirements which is filed on oath and the character defining aptitude test before the employment letter or confirmation of an appointment is granted, are stringently complied with for the grade level 9 Federal Civil Servant , yet, it’s so watered down in the case of the bigger and more impactful and deciding few political positions. Needless to talk about the requirements for employment in the private sector(I will dedicate a piece on Political Leadership versus Employment criteria on another piece )

6. The thrust of this write up actually is to draw our attention to the dangers of the provision of the revised INEC guidelines which stipulates political parties submits their membership registers within a specific period and before the party primaries for nominations. The underpinning is how this is being perceived and interpreted. Therefore, I want to interrogate it. But before I delve into it in details, I need to build some background, hence the previous paragraphs and the next paragraph after this.

7. Continuing from paragraph 5 above;the political leadership selection process comes with alot of gamesomeness in the way the politicians in power manipulate the system to set out rules that gives them undue advantages as an individual, group of individuals or political parties.
These selfish actions of those saddled with the responsibilities to chart a new course for us( Executive and Legislative Arms of Government) and the connivance of the Judicial arms of Government and the compromises of what should be independent, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has made what I described in Paragraphs 2 and 3 to be endemic. The only one phrase that brings us running round the circle is the “lack of PATRIOTISM” by the critical actors, who directly or indirectly sets the rules of engagement.
Many a Nigerian( in the uppermost majority) are disenfranchised by these rules of engagements, be it the statutory federal laws, subsidiary laws or guidelines by INEC or Political Parties.

8. From available records, since 1999,there have been an increase in the INEC registered voters, voting age population, but a decline in the turn out of registered voters.
Using the Presidential election as a case study, I will analyse based on the registered voters by INEC , the vote cast and the percentage of the vote cast for the sake of this piece. In 1999: Registered Voters(RV) =57. 9M,Vote Cast(VC) =30.2M,Percentage =52%.2003: RV=60.8M,VC=42M,Percentage =69%.2007: RV=61.5,VC=35.4M, Percentage =57.4%.2011:RV=73.5M,VC=39.4M,Percentage =53.6%.2015: RV=68.8,VC=29.4M Percentage =43.6%.2019: RV=84M,VC=27.3M, Percentage =34.7%.2023:RV:93.4M,VC=24.9M,Percentage =26.7% From the statistics above,there have been aggregate increase in the registered voters despite INEC clean up exercises. However, except for 2003 where percentage of vote cast peaked at 69%,there have been a steady decline from 2007-2023,with the worst being 2023 at 26.7%.

9. Some of the implications of this dwindling vote cast are as follows :

i. Loss of faith in the selection process by the electorate leading to voter apathy.

ii. A dissatisfaction in the statutory laws and subsidiary guidelines for the elections.

iii. Creates a gap where politicians manipulate the voting process and outcome.

iv. A vote of no confidence in the electoral umpire and the Judiciary who adjudicates on pre and post electoral matters.

10. The nexus between this statistics and the subject matter is that the 2027 presidential election is predicted to be one of the most competitive or expectant in the annal of Nigerian democratic “experiment” post 1999. This is largely due to the alleged failure of leadership at all levels of Government, dwindling socio- economic fortune of the populace due to harsh economic policy( reactionary to the inherent shocks) , heightening insecurity, failed promises, general negative perceptions of critical actors, coupled with a chaotic opposition political buid up, where the oppositions alleged of being stifled by the ruling party using the instrumentality of the Government, manipulation of INEC and the Judiciary.

11. One of the now troubling discussion in the political space is the records of party membership submitted by the political parties (be it soft or hard copies). And the resultant presidential primaries where the record is showing that the APC posted over 90% of her registered members taking part in a direct primary elections, which is like a mock general presidential election.
The oppositions has began to raise allegations of an advance script of rigging the general elections. This assumption may not be far fetched because the turnout stands logic, deductive statistics and inferences on the head! How could you post over 90% voters turnout in a direct primary election of a haphazard preparation, no contest( Osifo was a smokescreen) , horse trading and logistics inadequacies election, when last National voting percentage is just but 26.7%?
A deep dive into the over 90% shows about 10.9M votes cast which is above total votes of 8.7M cast by all Nigerians for the APC in the 2023 general election, where the trend in over twenty years is a declining vote cast.
Furthermore, based on statistics, 56% of registered voters do not belong to any political party. Using the rule of thumb and juxtaposing the 10.9M votes in the APC 2026 presidential primary election against the 8.7 M votes earned in 2023, a declining 26.7% National Vote cast in 2023, the encroachement of the support base of the APC by the oppositions, the loss of active leaders of the APC post 2023, the demise of an influential figure in the person of the former President, Buhari and his cult followership,
the alleged mismanagement of governance, the socio-economic hardships on Nigerians , put all these together, then, it’s suspicious not to continue to interrogate the APC presidential primary vote cast of 10.9M.

12. In concluding, according to William Shakespeare, Henry IV, Part 2″ Heavy is the head that wears the crown “, therefore, the opposition should do more than raising an allegations of the APC preparing to rig the 2027 elections by using the declared 10.9M of about 12.6M registered party members as a test run.

I will advocate for some of the following mitigants:

a. Since the total registered voters as at 2023 is about 93.4 M which will rise when the register is updated in 2026, I advise the opposition parties to deliberately and consciously through clear and concise, practical, actionable and measurable policies during the campaigns wow the over 70% non voting electorates and the about 56% voters who do not belong to any political party.

b. Over 70% of the non voting electorates by the 2023 Registered voters is over 60M voters which is higher than the 10.9M posted by the APC that’s being suspicious. Therefore, closing the voters apathy gap will make manipulation of the elections difficult.

c. The opposition should begin to keep legal day books of all the processes, getting hard and documented facts as it concerns the forth coming elections. The ones that are pre election matters should be immediately filed in courts so that it’s not status barred. And, the ones that’s tagged post election matters should be properly documented and linked to the pre-election, to be filed at the appropriate time for the sake of justice and jurisprudence.

d. Opposition political parties should painstakingly engage world acclaimed system forensic experts and subpoena INEC through the courts to present it’s electronic system for scrutiny where appropriate, pre and post the general election for the integrity of the electoral process: starting from accreditation, voting and transmission of results.

e. Any and every gray area of the revised electoral law that’s opaque, and not helpful to the conduct of a free and fair election should be challenged in court immediately, with the view of setting it aside or amending it.

f. The budget of INEC, releases and it’s execution should immediately be made public and transparent. Publish a code of conduct with punitive measures signed by it’s key officers , should they fail the nation to conduct a free, fair and credible elections, when a reasonable budgetary request has been granted.

g. The courts should extend sitting times and days to handle mounting litigation and timely dispensation of justice.

h. Churches, Mosques, Social and Cultural organisations should promote the importance of the civic responsibilities of it’s members in the area of voting.

i. Government and INEC should immediately begin to train critical stakeholders and security agencies to be involved in the 2027 General Election with huge incentives for their participation, to enhance free, fair and credible elections etc.

Chief Odatse-Peters, PhD, FIPESA, MICMC, MNES
29/05/2026