THE GRAVEYARD PEACE AND MY HUNCH ABOUT NDC: Playing the Devil’s Advocate

Since the decampment of HEs Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwanso to NDC, I have this uncomfortable feeling that HE Peter Obi has been outsmarted in the political power game. This feeling is founded based on the following assumptions:

1. In ADC, the anti – opposition did everything to destabilize the ADC. Actions such as multi- court cases to denial of convention venues were history.

2.In ADC, HE Peter Obi is surrounded with experience, networth and highly networking political gladiators. HE Peter Obi brings the dimension of a rising political actor into the ADC equation.

3.In ADC using the rule of the thumb, HE, Peter Obi is the most valuable politician being that, based on empirical statistics and forecast, he’s expected to clinch over 10Million votes in 2027, because his popularity is in the ascendancy in the North currently. In 2023 he won the majority votes in the South South and South East geopolitical region and did relatively well in the North Central. He defeated Tinubu in Lagos, thereby winning a state in the South West. His total 6.1Million votes is expected to rise in 2027, due to his new popularity in the north, especially the swing geopolitical zone, North West which President Tinubu GCFR won in 2027 due to the influence of Late President Buhari.
His teaming up with HEs Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso and El-Rufai makes him the real deal.

4.In ADC except for HE Atiku Abubakar GCON, who statistically the law of dimishing return is setting in on him politically, from securing over 11 Million Votes in 2019 as a united PDP candidate and dropping over 4 Million votes by scoring 6.9Million votes in 2023 also as a united PDP candidate, less HE Wike River State. He only won North East, performed decently in North West, but lost his traditional South East and South South support to Obi.
Obi statistically with his in road into the North West, the body language of the North against the incumbent, the death of President Buhari, Obi’s new strong alignment with some leaders of the north where at least two strategic minds has been mentioned above, it’s clear Obi is a very strong candidate for Aso Rock in 2027 , if he can navigate the Atiku Primary election myth. Since 1999, Atiku wins all primary elections he contested. Incidentally, the incarceration of El-Rufai, the lack of courage of Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso and Obi’s principle of not spending money for primaries may have made them to fall into the trap set by the APC and her strategist.

5. Legally, the ADC is on a sound footing by the judgment of the supreme court recognising Senator David Mark’s leadership and the last week indefinite adjournment of the referenced case at Justice Emeka Nwite FHC, based on application by Nafiu Bala Gombe for a change of Judge! These actions are not a coincidence, but a well planned strategy after Obi and Kwankwanso joined NDC.
ADC is not considered a real threat as far as the Presidential election is concerned now.

6. Now enters the intrigues: NDC was alleged to have a controversy of faulty registration as a political party, according to Dr. Umar Ardo, a pro-democracy crusader and a member of the league of Northern Democrats, who attested that based on the CTC of the judgment of the Federal High Court, Lokoja, which directed INEC to register NDC, NDC did not show compliance to the electoral laws for registration of political association as a political party, neither did it fulfil INEC guidelines for the registration of political parties. Shockingly, INEC did not appeal, but executed the judgement! Note, this are statutory provisions of the law that can’t be wished away. Yet the ruling party, agents of government are silent, not saying anything. ME THINK THEY ARE SAVING THE BEST FOR THE LAST !

7.Two days to the NDC convention, it was reported that the National Leader of NDC, Sen. Serieke Dickson held a close door section with the President. The convention was held, no harassment from Minister Wike to owner of convention venue as was the case with ADC. Furthermore, INEC was on hand to monitor the convention peaceful. ME THINK, THE APC AND THE AGENT OF GOVERNMENT HAS STRATEGICALLY SEEN A LOOPHOLE TO CAGE OBI AND THE OPPOSITION.

8. On convention day, NDC announced a single term of four years South South Presidency. WHILE THE WORLD WAS CELEBRATING, I SEE A TRAP AND A CRACK, BECAUSE BY THIS ANNOUNCEMENT, IT MEANS IF NDC FIELDS AN OK TICKET AND WINS( THAT’S IF THEY MAKE IT TO THE BALLOT OR ARE SWORNED-IN) , KWANKWANSO WILL BE IN A PRIME POSITION TO CONTEST IN 2031 AS A SITTING VICE PRESIDENT WITH ALOT OF ADVANTAGES. THEREFORE, THE IDEA IS TO REDIRECT THE NORTHERN VOTES TO APC FOR TINUBU TO COMPETE HIS TWO TERMS, THROUGH SELF – COMPETITIVE DIVIDE AND RULE PRINCIPLE. THE STRATEGY IS TO MAKE IT LOOK LIKE KWANKWANSO WILL HAVE AN ADVANTAGE IN 2031, TRIGGER SENTIMENT AGAINST THAT ADVANTAGE SO ALL ASPIRING NORTHERN POLITICIANS CAN DIG IT OUT IN 2031, THAT WAY THE SEEMING NORTHERN GOODWILL OBI IS ENJOYING NOW WILL DISAPPEAR, THEREBY REDUCING HIS CHANCES OF WINNING.
DON’T FORGET THAT THE INCUMBENT VP, SHETTIMA HAS BEEN MADE REDUNDANT, THEREBY LOSING NORTHERN POLITICAL PATRONAGE AND SUPPORT.

9.HE Kwankwanso’s alleged acceptance to be a vice to Peter Obi, what he refused to do in 2023,shows he’s only interested in positioning himself for 2031, win or lose. Win, he’s a sitting Vice President with SE and SS votes in his pocket, lose, he has the sentiment of supporting Obi, hence expects a huge support from Obi’s catchment geopolitical zone of SS and SE.
Don’t also forget that prior to his leaving NNPP and His In-law Governor moving to APC, he had several alignment meetings with President Tinubu! When you understand and solve mathematical calculus, you will know that not all permutations or answers are in the periphery. You really need to think deep.
I BELIEVE THAT ALL THOSE MOVEMENTS ARE A BIGGER PLAN TO GIVE TINUBU AN ADVANTAGE FOR 2031 SUPPORT, BUT THE TARGET IS TO DEMOBILIZE THE REAL THREAT, HE PETER OBI.

10.Finally,I think it was a classical mistake for HE Peter Obi to have left the ADC that has such a balance civil-military leader in Senator David Mark, a two term Senate President, the man behind the doctrine of necessity, a principled man.
I’m convinced that if HE Obi remained in ADC, teaming up with HEs Kwankwanso and El-Rufai and the Malami SAN of this world, they would have wrestled the ticket of ADC from HE Atiku based on empirical juxtaposition!
Now they have sold him a dummy and he has been used.
The days ahead will confirm my hunch. I’m just playing the devil’s advocate.

Have a beautiful week. Remain Blessed, Pray for Nigeria and always give the Glory and thanks to God Almighty 🙏🙏🙏

-Chief Odatse-Peters Kelvin, PhD, FIPESA, MICMC, MNES