By Kelechi K.K. Acholonu, Management Consultant and Business Research Expert
In July 2025, Africa Polling Institute (API) launched its National Social Cohesion Survey (NSCS2025) report on the state of social cohesion in Nigeria. API’s analysis of polarization in Nigeria was based on political, ethnic, cultural, and religious diversity and pluralism — benchmarked against the period before the current administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The Nigeria Social Cohesion Survey 2025 (NSCS2025), conducted by the Africa Polling Institute (API), reveals that Nigeria remains below the social cohesion threshold, with a national social cohesion index of 46.8%, falling short of the 50% benchmark required to classify a country as socially cohesive. While this marks a 7.2% improvement from the 2022 score of 39.6%, the country continues to face significant divisions across multiple fault lines. The survey assessed social cohesion using 14 key indicators, including: identity, impunity, trust, social justice, participation, natural resources, and gender equity, among others.
The survey’s evaluation on polarization revealed some fault lines along political, religious, and ethnic lines. According to the data, while 55% of Nigerians believe that politics is a major source of division, 44% say that religion contributes to polarization, especially in the North-East (74.5%) and North-West (70.6%). Further analysis showed that the majority of respondents had mixed reactions regarding whether Nigeria is divided along ethnic lines, compared to the period before the current administration. The findings showed that 46% of respondents affirmed that ethnicity is a primary cause of conflict, division, and polarization, under the current President Tinubu administration, as 31% “agreed” and 15% “strongly agreed” with the assertion; compared to the previous administration, where 62% affirmed the assertion, with 35% expressing that they “agreed” and 27% “strongly agreed” that Nigeria was more divided by ethnicity. The downward trend of polarization indicates an improvement from the past administration, although there is still a lot of work to be done in terms of Political and Religious pluralism.
Notably, the South-West consistently reported the lowest perception of polarization across all categories, signaling relatively stronger cohesion. Additionally, younger and more educated Nigerians tend to see the country as less divided — offering a glimmer of hope for the future. In the report’s review of relevant literature, it observed that although society can be said to be divided along the lines of ethnicity, religion, political affiliation, and access to socio-economic rights — polarization is not so much the problem — the challenge lies in the sources of inequalities that exist within and among the contending camps and groups in society.
Correspondingly, API’s NSCS2025 report noted that a society might experience specific degrees of polarization and yet enjoy some forms of social cohesion. For instance, a strongly polarized political landscape may exist within an overall cohesive society, yet a consensus on the norms and values of the democratic system remains intact. There is some element of truth to this viewpoint, considering that countries like the USA, for example, are composed of various ethnic/racial minorities — Hispanics, Black-Americans, Native-Americans, Asian-Americans. Yet, they possess a united sense of purpose, with a firm understanding that a ‘Federation’ is a union of smaller independent nations and ethnicities who subordinate their diverse interests to the general interest of the larger state. So this naturally raises the question: Can a polarized country achieve social cohesion and economic progress? And why did Nigeria’s founding fathers choose federalism?
To answer these questions, we must briefly explore the rationale behind the Lyttleton Constitution. Nigeria is a multilingual and multi-ethnic nation, home to over 400 ethnic groups and languages. To address the complexities of diversity, the Founding Fathers adopted the federal system of government, recognizing the peculiar characteristics of the country. Nigerian federalism, modeled after that of the United States, took shape during the 1954 Lyttleton Conference, which led to the official enactment of the Federal Constitution of Nigeria. Hence, the foundation of Nigerian federalism was based on the principles of power distribution among sub-national regions, the devolution of authority across the three tiers of government, constitutional supremacy, and inclusive governance. These tenets were intended to foster a shared national identity and promote socio-political and economic integration. Yet, many Nigerians (particularly our politicians) mistakenly believe that our federal system simply emerged without context or design.
Against this backdrop, API’s report is relevant when it argues that “a society might experience specific degrees of polarization and yet enjoy some forms of social cohesion”—provided that diversity is well-managed. In other words, while Nigeria’s diversity may present challenges, the problem lies in the sources of inequalities that exist within and among the contending camps and groups in society, which the federal system framework ideally should have addressed. API’s assessment of polarization concludes by highlighting the importance of governance that reflects Nigeria’s diversity, particularly in political appointments and decision-making processes. This includes ensuring ethnic and religious balance to reduce feelings of marginalization that fuel polarization. It is worth noting that the current administration has made some progress in promoting the equitable distribution of power, aiming to ease concerns about marginalization and nepotism. This effort has been reflected in both political appointments and a Supreme Court ruling that supported the devolution of financial autonomy (in the Residual List) to local government areas.
Finally, the report called on agencies such as the National Orientation Agency (NOA), which has been somewhat active under its new leadership, to deepen its strides and activities aimed at promoting unity, peaceful coexistence, religious tolerance, civic values, and a strong national identity. Here’s a link to the full report.
