₦41.4 Trillion Trade: Real Progress, and Why Nigerians Must Support the Next Phase
By Otunba (Dr) Abdulfalil Abayomi Odunowo
Nigeria’s Q2 2026 foreign-trade figures mark genuine progress. Total merchandise trade reached ₦41.445 trillion. Exports of roughly ₦27.02 trillion far exceeded imports of about ₦14.42 trillion, delivering a solid trade surplus of approximately ₦12.6 trillion.
These results strengthen Nigeria’s external position. Higher export earnings improve foreign-exchange supply, support reserves, and help stabilise the naira. The Tinubu administration has every reason to welcome the numbers and Nigerians have every reason to recognise them as evidence that hard reforms are beginning to work.
Measuring correctly strengthens the case for reform
At an exchange rate near ₦1,370 to the dollar at the end of Q2, the ₦41.445 trillion trade volume equals about $30.3 billion. Exports translate to roughly $19.7 billion and imports to about $10.5 billion. This remains meaningful economic activity.
For context, Nigeria’s total merchandise trade in 2014 stood near $149 billion with a population of about 186 million around $800 of trade per Nigerian. More recent annual figures have been lower in dollar terms even as the population has grown past 230 million. The lesson is clear and constructive: we must track performance in dollars, in real terms, and per capita alongside the naira headlines. Doing so does not diminish today’s achievement; it equips policymakers and citizens to sustain and deepen it.
A simple illustration helps. A business that once turned over ₦20 billion when the naira was ₦200 to the dollar generated $100 million. If turnover later reaches ₦40 billion at ₦1,400 to the dollar, the naira figure has doubled while the dollar value has fallen. Nominal expansion and real strength are not automatic twins. Accurate measurement keeps reform focused on the outcomes that matter.
Progress is real and must now reach households
The Q2 surplus and stronger export performance are positive signals. Greater foreign-exchange inflows create better conditions for investment and currency stability. Continued improvement over several quarters would confirm a meaningful recovery in the external sector.
At the same time, macroeconomic gains become lasting only when they improve everyday life. A mother feeds her children with purchasing power, not a trade surplus. A worker pays school fees with real income growth, not reserve figures. The administration’s reforms have carried adjustment costs precisely because they confront long-standing distortions. The evidence of improving external accounts shows those costs are beginning to yield results. The next, decisive phase is to transmit that stability into lower food prices, reliable and cheaper energy, expanding manufacturing, stronger SMEs, productive jobs, and wages that outpace inflation.
From crude dependence to Made-in-Nigeria strength
Nigeria still relies heavily on petroleum exports while importing large volumes of manufactured goods. A population approaching a quarter of a billion people needs a different structure. The path forward is clear: refine more petroleum products at home, process cocoa into chocolate and packaged foods, turn raw minerals into industrial inputs, and ship increasingly sophisticated Made-in-Nigeria goods produced by Nigerian factories employing Nigerian workers. When export earnings rise through higher-value production, foreign trade flows directly into household incomes.
Celebrate the numbers and back the work that multiplies them
The ₦41.445 trillion trade figure, the large surplus, and the signs of greater macroeconomic stability deserve recognition. Accurate measurement in dollars, after inflation, and per Nigerian does not criticise progress; it protects it. Supporting reform means insisting that every improvement in government accounts translates into stronger family accounts.
The practical questions that keep reform honest are straightforward: What is the figure worth in dollars? What is it worth after inflation? What is it worth per Nigerian? And above all, what can Nigerian families actually buy with the economy that produces it?
A stronger Nigeria is the one in which the currency stabilises, businesses become more productive, exports grow more sophisticated, real incomes rise, and ordinary citizens discover that their money buys more again. The Q2 numbers show movement in the right direction. Sustained public support for the reforms that produced them and for the next phase that must deliver results at the household level will determine how far and how fast that movement continues.
Otunba (Dr.) Abdulfalil Abayomi Odunowo Public Affairs Commentator & Development Advocate
