Nigeria’s Painful Economic Surgery: Is the Patient Recovering?

By Otunba (Dr.) Abdulfalil Abayomi Odunowo

When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took office in May 2023, many Nigerians judged the economy by what they could see and feel every day: fuel was available (though expensive for some), the naira had an official rate, electricity subsidies still existed in parts of the system, and government kept functioning. What was harder to see was the deeper sickness.

Nigeria was carrying heavy structural problems that had built up over decades: debt service that sometimes exceeded government revenue, a petrol subsidy that drained trillions of naira every year, multiple exchange rates that created huge losses and opportunities for arbitrage, weak revenue collection, declining purchasing power, unreliable electricity, low industrial productivity, and an economy still overly dependent on oil for foreign exchange and government income even as oil’s share of GDP had fallen sharply.

In plain terms, Nigeria was not suffering from a mild fever. It was a patient who needed major surgery. And major surgery hurts.

The Stage-Four Cancer Analogy, Explained Simply
Imagine a patient with advanced cancer. The doctor has two choices. Give painkillers that make the patient feel better for a while while the disease keeps growing. Or perform aggressive surgery and treatment that will make the patient feel much worse at first, but offers a real chance of recovery. The pain of treatment is not the same as the disease itself.

Fuel subsidy removal and foreign-exchange reforms were the aggressive intervention. Successive governments had postponed these steps because they knew the short-term pain would be severe. By 2022, the petrol subsidy alone cost roughly ₦4.5–₦4.7 trillion (about 2% of GDP) and, together with the implicit subsidy from multiple exchange rates, the World Bank estimated total losses around ₦10 trillion (roughly $15 billion at market rates). Debt service had climbed to over 100% of federal revenue in 2022 in some measures. The official exchange rate sat around ₦460/$ while the parallel market was near ₦760–₦770. These distortions were unsustainable. Removing them was politically courageous. But courage in starting the operation is not enough. The surgeon must also show that the patient is recovering.

The Real Questions Now
We have spent enough time arguing whether the reforms were necessary. The more important questions today are practical and everyday:

* Is the economy producing more of what Nigerians need?
* Are people becoming more productive?
* Is inflation coming under lasting control?
* Is food becoming more affordable in real terms?
* Are industries expanding and creating jobs?
* Is electricity more reliable?
* Is the purchasing power of ordinary salaries beginning to recover?

GDP growth, rising government revenue, and foreign reserves matter. But for most Nigerians, recovery means something simpler: Can my salary buy more food this month than last year? Can I afford transport? Can I keep the lights on? Can my small business survive? Can young people find real work?

Until the big numbers start translating into these daily realities, government cannot claim the operation has succeeded.

Reform Without Production Cannot Save Nigeria
Nigeria cannot tax, borrow, or devalue its way to prosperity. It must produce its way out of poverty. History offers clear lessons. The Structural Adjustment Programme of the mid-1980s produced some recovery in growth and non-oil exports after years of decline, but the gains were uneven, inflation remained high, and ordinary people felt little lasting improvement because production and social protection lagged. Countries that successfully reformed energy subsidies Indonesia in the mid-2000s is a frequently cited example combined price adjustments with clear communication, targeted cash transfers to protect the poor, and visible reinvestment of savings into productive areas. Reforms that delivered only pain without parallel support for production and vulnerable households often faced backlash or partial reversal.

Nigeria’s path forward must therefore focus relentlessly on production:

* Turn agricultural potential into abundant, affordable food.
* Refine more crude oil at home instead of exporting it and importing petrol.
* Use vast gas reserves to power industries and homes.
* Process solid minerals domestically rather than shipping them out raw.
* Build a skilled workforce from the large youth population.
* Make electricity reliable enough for factories, farms, and small businesses.
* Cut the cost of moving goods through better infrastructure.
* Reduce the cost of running government itself so that citizens are not the only ones sacrificing.

If ordinary Nigerians are asked to endure hardship, the political class must visibly share that burden through leaner government, transparent spending, and accountability.

What Government Must Do Going Forward Backed by Evidence
The first phase of reform removed major distortions. The next phase must rebuild household prosperity and productive capacity. History and international experience show what works:

1. Prioritise food production and lower input costs. Food inflation has been a major driver of hardship. Sustained investment in security for farming areas, improved seeds, fertiliser access, storage, and rural roads has repeatedly delivered results in countries that reduced food price pressure after reforms.
2. Fix electricity as a national priority. Installed capacity remains around 13–14 GW, but average available generation has hovered near 4,500–5,500 MW for a population of over 200 million, with frequent collapses and tens of millions still without reliable access. No modern economy grows without reliable power. Targeted investment in generation, transmission, gas supply, and distribution, plus support for decentralised solutions, is non-negotiable.
3. Support domestic manufacturing and value addition. Oil’s share of GDP has fallen to low single digits, yet it still dominates exports and foreign exchange. Broadening the export base through agro-processing, light manufacturing, and minerals processing reduces vulnerability.
4. Protect purchasing power with targeted support while inflation falls. Headline inflation rose sharply after the 2023 reforms (peaking above 30% in 2024 in some series) before beginning to ease. Temporary, well-targeted cash transfers or food support — as used successfully in Indonesia — can cushion the poorest while production expands.
5. Make government leaner and more transparent. Savings from subsidy removal and better revenue collection must visibly fund productive infrastructure and social services rather than higher recurrent spending.
6. Improve the cost of credit and logistics for productive businesses. High interest rates and transport costs remain major constraints. Addressing these multiplies the impact of other reforms.

Give Reform a Chance But Demand Results
President Tinubu inherited deep structural problems that previous administrations postponed. History should record the political courage required to confront them. Yet courage in beginning surgery must be matched by competence in managing recovery and visible results for citizens.

Supporters should not dismiss every hardship as mere political opposition. Critics should acknowledge that decades of accumulated problems cannot vanish in a few years. The mature national conversation should centre on one question: Are these reforms rebuilding Nigeria’s productive capacity and improving the daily lives of Nigerians?

That is the standard by which history will judge this experiment. Nigeria required emergency economic surgery. Families, workers, and businesses have already paid a heavy price in lost purchasing power, higher transport costs, and adjusted lives. They deserve more than explanations. They deserve results. Pain is not the goal of surgery. Recovery is. The ultimate measure of economic reform is not how much hardship Nigerians can endure, but how quickly that sacrifice produces a stronger, more productive economy and a better life for ordinary people.
The patient has endured the operation. It is time to show clear signs of recovery.

Signed

Otunba (Dr) Abdulfalil Abayomi Odunowo
National Chairman AATSG
ASIWAJU AHMED TINUBU SUPPORT GROUP.
FRIDAY 11TH SEPTEMBER 2026.